Premier League Matchweek 38: betPawa BIG match insights
It’s going to be a devastating day for 2 Premier League clubs this Sunday as a pair of BIG sides will suffer the same fate as already-relegated Southampton.
There are 10 simultaneous kick-offs but our focus is on the 3 that will resolve that battle, beginning at Everton, who start the final round in the strongest position of the 3 relegation candidates. According to Opta Analyst’s Supercomputer, Leeds have a 96.9% chance of being relegated, while Leicester’s is 82.7% and Everton’s is 20.4%.
We also end the preview by looking at Saturday’s Bundesliga finale and the penultimate round of Serie A matches.
Everton vs Bournemouth
Dyche’s men have a clear mission
A win would guarantee top-flight status for the Toffees next season, but if Leicester fail to beat West Ham and Leeds don’t win against Spurs, they’ll survive regardless of what happens at Goodison. Incredibly, Everton have been in the top tier of English football every season since 1954/55.
Premier League ever-presents have fate in their own hands
Even a point against the Cherries would seal safety for Everton if Leeds win by 2 or fewer goals against Spurs and Leicester don’t win. Things get complicated if the Toffees lose, as that opens the door for Leicester and Leeds to pounce if they both secure wins.
Bournemouth are already safe and can finish anywhere between 13th and 16th depending on this result. They have a superb recent record against Everton. That being said, their current form is poor with 3 successive defeats against Chelsea, Crystal Palace and Man Utd.
Did you know?
Bournemouth have won their last 3 Premier League meetings with Everton, scoring exactly 3 goals in each of those successes
Leicester vs West Ham
2016 champions on the brink
The Foxes have endured a dreadful campaign. They finally kept a clean sheet in their Monday night outing at Newcastle, but they also failed to score. It’s their only league clean sheet in 2023 so far, and perhaps something to build upon this Sunday.
They have to beat West Ham to have any hope of survival, and are also relying on Bournemouth avoiding defeat against Everton. On a more theoretical level, they’ll be hopeful Leeds won’t overturn their 9-goal superior goal difference with a massive thrashing of Spurs.
West Ham with 1 eye on the Conference League?
Leicester wouldn’t mind if David Moyes rested a host of key players as the Hammers prepare for their Conference League final meeting with Fiorentina on 7th June, 10 days after this match, though the Londoners did beat Leeds last weekend even after making 6 changes.
However, the Foxes won the reverse fixture 2-0 and a win here will be enough to secure safety, provided Everton fail to beat Bournemouth and Leeds don’t manage to claw back Leicester’s 9-goal superior goal difference. It’s still not in their hands though.
Whatever happens, Leicester’s miraculous 2016 Premier League win feels like ancient history right now.
Did you know?
Leicester’s clean sheet against the Magpies was their first shutout in 22 league matches, a run stretching back to November 2022 against none other than West Ham
Leeds vs Tottenham
The Whites are on the brink
Leeds returned to the top-flight in 2020, some 16 years after their heartbreaking relegation at the end of the 2003/04 season.
Sam Allardyce’s charges are heavily reliant on other results going their way. A win is their only hope of staying up, and even that might not be enough because they need Everton to slip up and Leicester also sit above them by virtue of goal difference.
The tie-breaker scenario
In the unlikely event that Leeds and Leicester win their games and Everton draw with Bournemouth, all 3 sides will finish with 34 points. In that scenario, Leicester will be sitting pretty with a vastly superior goal difference to the others.
Leeds face a Tottenham side that have lost 5 of their last 7 league matches, but Spurs can still snatch a Europa Conference League spot if they win and Aston Villa fail to beat Brighton.
Did you know?
Both sides have scored in each of Leeds’ last 12 Premier League matches
Bundesliga title in Dortmund’s hands
Bayern Munich’s 10-year monopoly on the Bundesliga crown will end on Saturday if Borussia Dortmund collect all 3 points against Mainz. It’s as simple as that for Dortmund, who haven’t won the title since 2011/12 under Jürgen Klopp when Robert Lewandowski was their top scorer.
Reus would be a deserving winner
33-year-old Marco Reus, who has been at Dortmund for over a decade, might just be about to collect his first Bundesliga title and who can begrudge him that? The talented midfielder has been desperately unlucky with injuries throughout his career for club and country, and he’s seen so many stellar names come and go at Westfalenstadion. Reus has been the constant.
His side have found form at the right time too, scoring 14 times in their last 3 league outings after shrugging off the disappointment of a 1-1 draw with Bochum. In that match, they were denied a penalty in controversial fashion, one which might have won them the game.
You can’t ever rule Bayern out
Bayern are away to Köln knowing a win will deliver them the title if Dortmund fail to beat Mainz because of the Bavarian side’s vastly superior goal difference.
It’s a simple equation but there are likely to be some complications, twists and turns along the way on Saturday.
More Serie A drama in store
With recent developments seeing Juventus docked 10 points, they’re now languishing in 7th in Serie A, opening the door for AC Milan to snatch a Champions League place. Those sides, conveniently, square up on Sunday evening.
There are still 2 more matches left to play in the Italian league season but a win here would put Milan within touching distance of sealing 4th, especially as Inter (3rd) and Atalanta (5th) will take points off one another on Saturday. The Rossoneri face relegation-threatened Verona on the final day. A Juventus win would put a cat among the pigeons and make the scrap for European places even more dramatic on the final weekend.
