WC22 Semi-Final Preview: betPawa BIG match insights

Will it be an Argentina vs France final, or have Croatia and Morocco got more surprises in store? Here are some insights to help you decide.

Croatia vs Argentina

Modrić and Messi lead their countries into battle

37-year-old Luka Modrić is bidding to lead his nation to a second consecutive appearance at a World Cup final, and in his way stands one of the greatest footballers that’s ever lived. This contest is about so much more than just 2 individuals with the initials LM wearing fabled number 10 jerseys though.

This is about 2 exceptional football teams that are just as happy out of possession as they are with the ball at their feet.

Where will this battle be won and lost?

Croatian continuity

Dejan Lovren, Luka Modrić, Ivan Perišić and Mateo Kovacić all started for Croatia against Brazil in the WC14 opener, while Marcelo Brozović was on the bench. They’re all still key members of the group with that familiarity forging this team of never-say-die footballers into a formidable outfit. 2022 feels like their last shot at the BIGGEST prize and their attitude on the pitch will reflect that on Tuesday night.

Maestro Modrić not afraid to do the dirty work

The Real Madrid veteran has made more tackles and interceptions combined (20) than any other midfielder at the tournament. He’s played the most minutes (485) of any player over the age of 35, and he also played the most minutes (694) of ANY player at WC18. All in a day’s work really. Croatia boss Zlatko Dalić will need another massive shift from Modrić against Argentina, and that’s practically guaranteed from an exemplary pro.

Midfield battle is a central theme

The Croatian engine room is a thing of balanced beauty. Modrić, Kovacić and Brozović are all subtly different in their work but bring the same mental approach to games - hard graft, grit and determination.

Kovacić is brilliant at evading a high-press and dribbling his way out of danger and then carrying it forward efficiently, while Brozović directs traffic and mops up second balls almost better than anybody in the world. Modrić, well, he’s Modrić. 5-time Champions League winner, Ballon d’Or in 2018 and one of the finest footballers of his generation.

Argentina’s engine room isn’t packed with established stars like Croatia’s, but it’s a new-look unit that’s got massive potential blossoming right before our eyes. Enzo Fernández, one of the breakout stars of this tournament, is the man to set the tempo for his team. He’s just 21.

Brighton’s Alexis Mac Allister produced a scintillating sequence of Premier League performances leading up to WC22 which made it impossible for Lionel Scaloni to ignore him. At 23, he’s also an exciting new cog in the wheel, adding brilliant off-the-ball movement, hard work and an eye for the spectacular.

28-year-old Rodrigo De Paul is the senior man in La Albiceleste’s midfield trio. The Atlético Madrid schemer is a wonderful ball player, but in this system Scaloni utilises his physical gifts as he’s the most dynamic of the 3, making his role absolutely pivotal. He will have to get amongst the Croatian trio and disrupt their rhythm so Fernández and Mac Allister can play around them. De Paul might not last 90 minutes, but expect him to put 110% into his efforts as long as he’s on the pitch.

Absurd record in penalty shootouts

At some point, Croatia’s shootout heroics are going to get into the heads of opposition managers, if they haven’t already. Dominik Livaković was sublime against Brazil, not only in the shootout but also throughout the second half and extra time. His confidence levels will be soaring. If this goes to extra time, Argentina might feel they need to get the job done inside 120 minutes. Croatia have never lost a WC match that was decided by spot-kicks.

Livaković and Martínez not shy to steal the limelight

There was criticism of the Croatian keeper's distribution before the game against Brazil, but he seemed impervious to it by turning out a brilliant shot-stopping display against a team bristling with attacking quality.

It’s difficult not to get carried away and start fantasising about a shootout ahead of time, considering Croatia’s immaculate record when games go to spot-kicks, and Emiliano Martínez’s now-legendary antics between the sticks for Argentina. He was superb against the Netherlands, as he was in the Copa América final, and winds opponents up like no other keeper in the world. Penalties would be a fascinating way to settle this one, should we go that far.

Juranović could have some joy

Croatia’s Celtic right-back Josip Juranović was arguably the best player on the pitch during regulation time against Brazil, where time and again he exploited the lack of defensive work ethic shown by their wide players. Alexis Mac Allister will be much more diligent than Vini Junior in that regard.

However, the compact and mobile Juranović can still look at that flank as an area of potential profit. Regular Argentina left-back Marcos Acuña is suspended, and his robustness both on and off the ball will be missed. Juranović will be identifying his likely replacement Nicolás Tagliafico as a potential weak link.

Joško Gvardiol is the best young defender in the world

Whatever happens against Argentina, we can be sure that RB Leipzig will be the happiest club of them all. 20-year-old centre-back Josko Gvardiol is freakishly composed and assured for his age, and his performances in Qatar will have pushed his asking price up even further. Whoever manages to sign him is acquiring a generational defensive talent.

Messi, Messi, Messi

Argentina's defeat to Saudi Arabia on the opening matchday feels like a long time ago. Nobody took that defeat harder than their skipper, and he’s channelled that painful feeling positively ever since.

He scored and assisted against Mexico, missed a penalty against Poland but still managed to be the best player on the field by a long way, scored against Australia (his first goal in a knockout match at the World Cup, weirdly) and scored and assisted against Netherlands, then slotted his spot-kick in the shootout.

This is an excellent team, but their centrepiece has stepped up BIG time. Since 1966, no player has ever both scored and assisted in 4 separate WC career games. Messi has done so in 3. The little maestro will go level alongside Lothar Matthaus with 25 WC appearances, another all-time record figure. It’s probably not something he’ll be thinking about but just another amazing milestone to add to a bursting collection.

His geometrically-precise pass where the angle didn’t exist to create Nahuel Molina’s opener against the Dutch was the assist of the tournament so far. Modrić and his boys will need a plan to contain this guy, if such a plan exists.

Emotions will run wild

Football matters a great deal to hundreds of millions of fans around the world, and that was plain to see when Argentina pipped the Netherlands to a semi-final place. Nahuel Molina had tears running down his cheeks immediately after he opened the scoring and ran back to the halfway line. Emotions will be an important and inevitable ingredient in Tuesday night’s feast, so the players will need to ensure they strike a balance between passion and discipline on such a grand occasion.

The nuts and bolts of a steely encounter

The extra time goals they scored and conceded against Brazil mean that Croatia have never failed to score in their 10 WC knockout matches. However, they've conceded at least once in each of their last 8, with 5 of their last 6 going to extra time.

They’ve won all 4 of their penalty shootouts at the World Cup, knocking out Japan and Brazil in the last 16 and quarter-finals in 2022 respectively. The only nation to win more penalty shootouts in the competition are Argentina (5). Croatia’s 117th-minute equaliser against Brazil was their first shot on target of the match.

This one really feels like it’s on a knife edge.

Team news

With Acuña suspended, Lyon’s Nicolás Tagliafico is the natural replacement at left-back. Manager Scaloni might consider sacrificing Lisandro Martínez so he can revert to a 4-3-3 and include Angel Di María.

Likely starting XIs

Croatia: Livaković; Juranović, Lovren, Gvardiol, Sosa; Modrić, Kovacić, Brozović; Pašalić, Petković, Perišić

Argentina: Martínez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Tagliafico; De Paul, Fernández, Mac Allister; Di María, Messi, Álvarez

pawaStat:

Croatia haven't scored first in any of their last 9 World Cup games since a 2-1 win over Iceland in the 2018 group stages, yet they’ve reached consecutive semi-finals

Morocco vs France

The tournament’s heroes face the holders

When Morocco and Croatia produced a goalless draw in the opening match of Group F, how many people would have predicted that both sides would make the final 4 in Qatar?

Morocco stood on the precipice of history against Portugal. Now, they’ve broken through that glass ceiling by becoming Africa’s first-EVER World Cup semi-finalists. Whatever happens from here will surely be a bonus for Walid Regragui’s team, but they must be so hungry to keep the dream going.

As Peter Drury so beautifully said at the conclusion of their momentous, backs-to-the-wall win over Portugal: “The Atlas Lions are just one prowling step from the World Cup final.”

Can they get there? It’s a BIG ask. What should we expect from them against the World champions, who are bidding to become the first team to defend the title since Brazil in 1962? Let’s start with the Morocco manager.

Regragui is a magician

Morocco’s new coach has only been in charge of the national team for 8 matches. In those matches, they’ve kept 7 clean sheets, conceding just once, and no opposition player has found the back of their net. This is not a fluke. The trailblazing boss was the first African manager to reach a WC quarter-final, and now obviously the first to reach a semi-final too.

The Atlas Lions opened WC22 with a 0-0 draw against 2018 runners-up Croatia, they then beat 2018 semi-finalists Belgium and dispatched Canada to win Group F. 2010 world champions Spain were their next victims, on penalties, before that epic 1-0 rearguard effort against 2016 European champions Portugal. That is an esteemed list of scalps they’ve claimed. Now they set their sights on the BIGGEST scalp of all.

Atlas Lions bare their teeth to suffocate Portugal’s panache

Against Portugal, despite having much less of the ball (as you’d expect) Morocco steadily grew into the contest in the first half. The last 5 minutes were especially frenetic. Sevilla striker Youssef En-Nesyri gave them a deserved lead with his second goal of the tournament from his second shot on target (not a bad strike-rate), after some iffy decision-making from ‘keeper Diogo Costa.

Bruno Fernandes was desperately unlucky to see his dipping volley cannon off the underside of the crossbar. However, Morocco could and should have been 2 up at the break after a slick break, but Attiyat Allah shot when perhaps he should have fed a teammate.

Attiyat Allah, only playing because of an injury to Noussair Mazraoui, was the outstanding player of the first period. He assisted the goal and started the move from deep inside his own half that ended in the chance he skewed wide. João Félix had a few chances too, but Portugal struggled to play with the freedom and expression that was so impressive in their win over Switzerland. This was down to Morocco’s defensive doggedness.

The Portugal onslaught in the second half saw Yassine Bounou produce a top save to deny Félix, who thought he had scored, on 83 minutes. Morocco certainly had their scary moments after that too. There was still time for a Cristiano Ronaldo chance and then a glorious headed opportunity that Pepe somehow put wide. Adversity makes you stronger, and the Atlas Lions faced a lot of it when they were down to 10 men for 10 minutes of stoppage time. With headed clearance after headed clearance, they weren’t to be denied.

Regragui must somehow patch a team together

Morocco played the same back 4 in the first 4 games of the tournament, but now they could start against France with just 1 of those 4 (Achraf Hakimi). Nayef Aguerd and Noussair Mazraoui missed the Portugal game, Romain Saïss was injured in the Portugal game and there are also now doubts over Hakim Ziyech’s inclusion.

How can you doubt their collective spirit and resolution though? Whichever defensive unit takes the pitch will do so full of confidence and resolve. Mazraoui and Aguerd both have an outside shot of being included, but the former’s replacement Attiyat Allah deserves to keep his place on the left-side.

Oodles of French match-winning experience

Didier Deschamps’ side played with confidence and authority from the first whistle in the quarter-finals, which is something you come to expect from world champions. 5 of the 11 that started the final in Russia 4 years ago were present in their starting team against England. Hugo Lloris made his 143rd appearance in that game making him the most capped Frenchman ever.

Olivier Giroud is their all-time leading goalscorer. Kylian Mbappé is now a “veteran” of 357 senior matches for club and country. If he takes the field in Sunday’s final, he’ll do so as a 23-year-old, 2 days before his 24th birthday. Raphaël Varane has won the Champions League 4 times.

Antoine Griezmann was the man of the match in the 2018 final, and has 42 goals and 36 assists in 115 Les Bleus caps, including assists for both goals against England. Everywhere you look, there are players who have won the BIGGEST prizes and done it for a long time. This is a team that’s been there, done it and got the T-shirt.

Players enjoying time away from their clubs

The club/country distinction is always such an interesting one. Adrien Rabiot’s club career has been plagued with inconsistency, but he’s been a rock-solid operator for France over a number of years. Perhaps he wouldn’t get in the side if Kanté and Pogba were fit, but that is neither here nor there. Rabiot’s box-to-box skills are unique in this group.

Another man likely relieved to be away from the club scene is Chelsea’s Hakim Ziyech. Often accused of shirking his defensive duties, Ziyech’s workrate at the World Cup has been immense in Morocco’s 4-3-3 that morphs into a 4-1-4-1 when they don’t have the ball. If the 29-year-old can shake off a knock sustained against Portugal, he and Rabiot will be in direct confrontation for much of this sem-ifinal. 2 left-footers could have a BIG say on the final outcome.

Ziyech might also be targeting Theo Hernandez. The AC Milan left-back‘s bizarre decision to barge Mason Mount down in the area didn’t end up costing his team when Harry Kane sent his penalty into orbit, but you just cannot afford to do things like that in important football matches. Ziyech’s delivery from the inside right channel will be critical when the margins are slim and periods in possession of the ball for his team will be precious.

Griezmann is the grease in the wheel

It’s ridiculous to think that Antoine Griezmann, another supremely gifted left-footer, is still so underrated and underappreciated. His cross for Olivier Giroud’s winner against England (is he still underrated or have people come around?) was a masterpiece.

Griezmann and Giroud give France such guile and control in central areas which makes them able to spring their wide men Dembélé and Mbappé into action almost in an instant. France are both a possession-based team and a unit that can hurt you in transitions.

In a sensational run to the semi-finals inspired by their rugged defence, holding midfielder Sofyan Amrabat has been Morocco’s glue. He was absolutely unbelievable against Spain and Portugal and he’ll have his hands full again as he attempts to break up Griezmann’s rhythm. Griezmann has created 17 chances for teammates at this tournament; more than any other player. If Griezmann is the flame that starts the fires, Amrabat will need to be its extinguisher.

Another Moroccan miracle on the cards?

Morocco’s average of 31.3% possession is the second-lowest rate at the tournament ahead of only Costa Rica. This team’s individual members thrive when they don’t have the ball and relish the challenges that it presents. Sofyan Amrabat won possession 8 times against Portugal, and 41 times overall at the tournament, an unrivalled total.

They’ve kept 4 clean sheets in 5 WC22 games, and the 3 they’d kept in 4 before that match was already the most ever by an African side in a single edition of the tournament, with their 7 overall matching Nigeria for the most ever by an African team.

France have yet to keep a clean sheet at this tournament. If that streak continues, then Morocco have a fighter’s chance of taking this one to the wire. One thing is for certain, Les Bleus have plenty of problem-solving to do if they are to breach Walid Regragui’s team.

Friendship cast aside for one night only

Kylian Mbappé had a quietly effective match against England without necessarily producing his devastating best, but just his sheer presence alone is something to keep right-sided players up at night. Achraf Hakimi is the one genuine global superstar in Morocco’s squad, and he knows all there is to know about Mbappé from PSG’s training ground.

Hakimi won possession a team-leading 9 times against Portugal and won both of his attempted tackles. His 19 tackles and 13 won at this tournament are the most of any player. These 2 have hung out a lot off the pitch during the tournament, but it’s all business on Wednesday.

Likely starting XIs

France: Lloris; Kounde, Varane, Upamecano, T Hernandez; Tchouaméni, Rabiot; Dembélé, Griezmann, Mbappé; Giroud

Morocco: Bounou; Hakimi, El Yamiq, Benoun, Attiyat Allah; Ounahi, Amrabat, Amallah; Ziyech, En-Nesyri, Boufal

pawaStat:

Giroud will be the oldest player to score 5 in a single WC if he nets; with Mbappé already on 5, France could be the first team to have 2 players score 5+ in a single WC since Ronaldo and Rivaldo for Brazil in 2002